Nuclear blackmail. Escalation scenarios. Konstantin Sivkov.
Konstantin Sivkov (Navy Captain 1st Rank, retired) holds a doctorate of military sciences and is the deputy president of the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences.
Transcript:
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Only the West needs nuclear weapons. Only the west. And the West needs them for the following reasons. Because winter is coming. Western sanctions brought not just .. not led to the collapse of the Russian economy, but on the contrary put on the brink of collapse the European economy. And in these conditions the Europeans … if Russia persists through the winter. Now, when the “greenery” withers and falls, cold weather comes, winter .. Ukrainians will have it much worse than now. It will be easier for us to attack and act. Therefore, under these conditions, Western elites are in a position where they are about to die as result of the revolution, actually, inside countries, their own countries. This is brewing there. Especially against the backdrop of cold weather this will be inevitable, in the apartments, in the houses, when problems begin with food .. with food supplies, with other goods. When their factories stop, completely shut down as the result of the lack of gas shortage, or rather its absense. And they – yes, they need a nuclear war now. Because they have not been able to mobilize their peoples to go to war, yet. A regular war. But to unleash a nuclear war and against the backdrop of a nuclear war and the resulting threats of radioactive contamination to wide, large areas on the territory of Ukraine, on the territory of Poland, Germany, other countries in Europe and then mobilize the European population to a war against Russia, this may well be part of their plan. Therefore, they are extremely interested in doing this. Now, a natural scenario can be suggested to explain how this may be realized and why they scream [in the media]. Because Russia will use nuclear weapons. There are two clear options here. The first option is that .. the Americans, the americans themselves fire a missile MGM-140 ATACMS in the direction from East to West, in this direction [showing with his hand] – from East to West, from one territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a nuclear power plant located in the west of Ukraine, with it being destroyed. ATACMS missile. Not one, but several ATACMS missiles. As a result, a new Chernobyl is created .. Chernobyl is possible, by the way, Chernobyl might be hit. Cannot be completely ruled out. After that, Russia is blamed for this. Then starts.. As a result of the ensuing radioactive catastrophe, huge territories are contaminated on the very Ukraine and, most importantly, the contamination is also on the territory of Poland, Hungary, Germany. They punish Hungary for her independent policy and interaction with Russia. Fallout in Poland is to activate the Polish people to go to war with Russia. Germany in order to provoke their retaliatory actions. (presenter) Well, along the way, Belarus and western regions of the Russian Federation. (Sivkov) Quite right, this too. Here’s one such scenario. Further, naturally, our troops will have to solve problems also in these regions that are covered with the radioactive dust, this wil be problematic, and the task focus will no longer be the fighting war, but deactivation tasks. Here was the first one. Further it entitles them to use the most powerful machinery to accuse Russia of a nuclear strike – it will already be reported as a nuclear attack, so they will act decisevely, including the use of nuclear weapons against Russian troops. It cannot be excluded that this will give NATO a moral right to enter into a full-scale war with launching missile strikes, already full-scale packages of missile strikes on our territories. This will become a full-scale war. This will be the justification for a full-scale war and NATO’s entry into the war against Russia. Including with the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The second scenario might be as following. That they strike with a nuclear bomb. B-61 modification 12. It can be dropped on a nuclear power plant, or, maybe, it will be dropped just on the Ukrainian troops, which .. the bomb can be dropped from MiG-29 aircraft. We also have MiG-29 aircraft in service. And again they will blame Russia. Also they can use the bomb without MIG-29 aircraft. We do not know what upgrades the missile system ATACMS went through, but what the Americans have now are ultra-small caliber nuclear weapons, which are sufficiently small and which are already optimized for use with submarines with Trident II D5 missiles.. as the warheads of the Trident II D5 missile. These munitions were created relatively recently and designed for just such cases, to wage a war within the .. on a limited theater of war. Therefore, to put such a nuclear weapon on ATACMS, design a similar modification of ATACMS, the Americans obviously could. And then the same, exactly the same scenario – the strike with already nuclear ATACMS of some group of the Ukrainian troops and then all the same scenario to blame Russia. (host) And the next question. How do you explain what is now everywhere, the world’s current special interest .. interest, naturally, in the “quotation marks”, to nuclear weapons, moreover .. everyone and everywhere started talking about how nuclear weapons is OK to use, that if earlier they claimed that there can be no winner in a nuclear war, that it will be a collective suicide, now they publish that it was a mistaken view, and, in principle, nuclear weapons are perfectly acceptable, no catastrophe will happen, it’s an efficient ammunition. Well, a little more powerful than all rest. That’s why a nuclear war is possible. So how you do you rate these claims? Moreover that they come from very high-ranking .. from high-ranking people in the west and, plus, they come from well-known analytical centers of the West. All this is hardly accidental. (Sivkov) Let’s start with the fact that nuclear weapons, unfortunately, has become not only a political, but also a military weapon. And the reason for this was that we went through a deep disarmament, nuclear disarmament. When the concept of the nuclear winter was created, when these nuclear winter concepts were developed, then from each side – USA and from the side of Soviet Union, there were more than 30 thousand nuclear warheads each, and these were of very large caliber, about ten times more powerful on average, on average, than [inaudible – “what now”?] Then [at that time] – yes, mutual exchange with these 30 thousand nuclear warheads would lead to a nuclear winter, no problem. But now the number of nuclear warheads on both sides decreased by almost 10 times, well, not 10 times, but five times. And the total number of the warheads is no longer 60, but 14 thousand. And the potential of these warheads, the power of these warheads decreased significantly. Therefore, there will be no nuclear winter. And exactly becasue of that the hotheads started talking about the possibility of a nuclear war, because nuclear weapons have become an instrument of practical politics, practical applications. Therefore, those who carried out nuclear disarmament were criminals, who brought the world to the brink of a nuclear war. This is something that needs to be clearly noted. And all this chatter “Oh, how it is dangerous that there is so many” this is either a complete cretinism, or malicious intent. One or the other. I tend to think that it was the second. I’m more inclined towards the second option. Since all this chatter was going on at thje time when Americans opted out of the control of the missile defense systems treaty and moreover they were intensively increasing their capabilities. Now on the merits .. Igor Sergeevich, don’t you think it’s strange that Klaus Schwab announced in 2021 that, they say, mundial world, that is, a world without states and led by a world government will be built by 2030. (host) I remember, I remember. You and I did a separate broadcast on this topic, that their deadlines were running out. (Sivkov) Well, what is he, an idiot? Well, kind of maybe.. (host) Of course he is not. He may be a pervert, anyone, but he is not a fool. That’s for sure. (Sivkov) Yes. So, what is their plan about what to do under these conditions? That is, a mondial world can be built [only] under the conditions that the sovereignty of China and India has been destroyed. Is it conceivable to achieve by the methods of hybrid wars and even with a direct military intervention, to destroy the sovereignty of China in such short time? Definitely not. To do this, you need, well, I think, no less than half a century, if not longer. Can it be done through economy or using informational methods? Well, these are the constituents of a hybrid war. Also no. There is only one tool that allows it to be done and it is a nuclear blackmail. A nuclear blackmail becomes possible if the country, which carries out this nuclear blackmail has absolute superiority in the system of nuclear weapons and has a guaranteed confidence that there will be no a retaliatory nuclear strike. That’s when nuclear blackmail is possible. Then they could say “I’m here now will hit you with a nuclear strike, and you have nothing to hit me with in return. Even if you try, all your attacks will be repulsed.” Is it possible under the current conditions to carry out such a nuclear blackmail for the United States when there is a nuclear fist on the Russian side, and it is equivalent to the American one? Of course not. Of course not. Therefore, the implementation of this scenario .. this scenario is the only one possible survival scenario of the western world in the form in which we know it today, a parasitic world, it is possible only if they take control of Russia. Specifically, of its nuclear potential. Moreover, as you and I discussed previously, it is fundamentally important for the West not to dismember Russia, but take it in its entirety. Because if it were to desintegrate, then with great probability a part of the Russian nuclear potential, the scientific potential of Russia, will be in the hands of the Chinese and the problem will not be solved. Just take the entire Russia, change their president, plant a puppet that will agree to work for the West. That’s what Serdyukov wanted to do. He wanted the Russian armed forces to become an instrument of the West. When they imposed Mistral on us, imposed all kinds of Iveco cars, now known under the nickname “Gus”, well, in short, the foreign-made weapons. And the army brigade formation principles … brigade principles of structuring of the armed forces of the Russian Federations at that time – they were meant to be a part of the NATO army. That is, we were to solve problems on the ground, and the air support, artillery support, naval support – that will be done by the United States of America and NATO. That’s about the picture which one could see at that time. Apparently. Or so I guess, judging by the direction the activities of Mr. Serdyukov and his team, when they were saying that we do not need tanks. So the T-95 tank, top secret, was announced by one high-ranking chief at the very .. during a public event, its tactical and technical characteristics revealed, and then this program was closed altogether. It’s a different story, a separate story of betrayal. That’s why Russia is under attack now. And at the same time it is important for them not to destroy Russia as a whole structure [inaudible], but to take control over it. Then they could get a joint nuclear potential. The combined potential of the Americans and Russia will be in a position to dictate anything to anyone. That’s why now they’re starting to shift the perception to prove to the world that the use of nuclear weapons is a perfectly acceptable thing .. A completely acceptable thing. This is the first moment. Second moment. In addition to this scenario, there is another scenario in case if Russia is not defeated, but there is still a need to organise a revolution there. One of the most effective instruments for such a coup would be a military defeat of Russia at some remote war theater. If it turns out that it is not possible to achieve such defeat fighting with convential weapons, without the use of nuclear weapons, it turns out that the American theory suggests the possibility of a so-called limited nuclear war, when the nuclear weapons … nuclear weapons are used in the territories not directly related to either the territory of Russia, or the US. That is, without risk of a nuclear exchange between our countries, all the way to a general nuclear war. But [instead] fight with tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of some other country. That is, for example, Ukraine, Poland, Germany – nobody in America cares about a small nuclear war there in order to defeat Russia with the use of nuclear weapons, well, and then it would lead to the overthrow of President Putin. That’s how NATO thinks. This is the theory of a limited nuclear war. It is precisely these two aspects that, as I said previously, which demand that open propaganda, a justification of the use of nuclear weapons in a war. NATO, USA, global elites openly started preparations for a nuclear war. How it will begin, we have already discussed with you. But additionally I would like, Igor Sergeevich, to turn to the history. This is a very important moment. Once upon a time, during the Soviet Union, the world was divided into two camps, one capitalist, the other Socialist. They waged local wars among themselves, competed for the spheres of influence. But that was happenning in the third world countries. And those countries that focused on the west, sent to USA, … to Western countries and Europe their resources without much thinking that it is an unfair exchange system. That is, they gave their resources for a pittance, and the West sold them its high-tech products at very high prices. And this imbalance provided a high standard of living for the Western civilization. Western politicians thought that, well, probably thought judging by their actions, that their civilization, their mode of production, capitalist mode of production, this was really a pinnacle of everything. Remember that Fukuyama’s “end of history” and all such. Capitalism is the pinnacle of everything, it is an absolute perfection. And liberal capitalism in particular. It was then that these ideas about the permissibility of debauchery, those .. AC-DC .. Here, I remember how all these things [inaudible]. But that this well-being is based on .. an inadequate exchange, that by itself .. the system itself is extremely inefficient, they forgot. They poured mud on the Soviet system, in which everything was different, where the Soviet Union did not recived anything from anyone much, in particular, but on the contrary, gave, helped and supported. And when the Soviet Union began to fall apart when collapsed the Warsaw Pact, they celebrated the victory. But they did not understand one .. simple truth… the consequences of this event. The consequences of this event were that for the other countries of the world that used to export cheap raw materials, for them the western roof was no longer needed. And they began to sell these raw materiala for the corresponding prices. And then Western products could no longer compete with the Chinese, where there was a very cheap labor force. This had two effects. On the one hand, this led to a sharp industrialization of China, where they began to transfer capitalists enterprises, without them the Chinese miracle would have never happened. On the other hand, this led to deindustrialization, naturally, of the West and the symptoms of growing crisis in the Western societies. And so there was a decision that they had enough of this freedom with the raw materials. They must be put under control. A provocation was staged in 2001, 11 September and the West, United States started an America’s operation to take over Iraq and Afghanistan. Afghanistan is the most important communication route, there are reserves .. the largest reserves of uranium ores, on the one hand. And Iraq is a foothold for further capture of the entire Middle East in general. But it turned out that America did not have an army. It was discovered. That is, it had aviation, it had a fleet, but the actual army capable of getting on the ground and risking their lives, at close range fight to control territory, for this there as no army. [inaudible] in Iraq and Afghanistan were defeated. So something else had to be done. And that’s where the controlled chaos theory comes into play. The last coffin.. the last nail in the Arab spring coffin was hammered by Russia in 2015-18, putting an end to the war in Syria, destroying ISIS. What was left to the West? The West has left with only one oiption – to use nuclear weapons. The West no longer had military power, a sufficient general purpose power, the West no longer had economic power, and the liberal ideology that was used to be one of the pillars to spread the Western influence, was completely discredited. All they had left was a nuclear cudgel. But to this nuclear cudgel, to the possibility of using of this nuclear cudgel, Russia was an obstacle. This is exactly why now Russia is under such an all-out attack. And they had been preparing it for a long, long time. The West, if it loses this war, if it loses this fight for Russia, if Russia stands, it will mean the end of the West. And by the way, an interesting thing is what is now starting to happen in the West. If we consider the Western Civilization to be similar to a community of the same type of individuals, of the same kind, spiritually of the same kind, who are fit for each other, then in the West now there is a state of cannibalism in its wildest form. Now the United States of America and Great Britain, that is, the Anglo-Saxon axis, are trying to solve their crisis problems at the expense of the Old Europe. And these problems, asociated with the termination of the energy deliveries to Western Europe, and in particular, the destruction of this gas pipeline, it’s all aimed at one thing only – to achieve the deindustrialization of Western European economy, force the industry of Western Europe to move to USA. That is the meaning of this whole action. (the host) It is clear now. Thank you, Konstantin Valentinovich. I thank you for taking part in our program. And I remind you that Day TV was visited by a doctor of Military sciences, Deputy President of Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences, Konstantin Valentinovich Sivkov. Goodbye oprichny people, find the reports in the telegram channel of the newspaper tomorrow . Nuclear blackmail. Escalation scenarios. Konstantin Sivkov | The Vineyard of the Saker
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