The Geopolitics of Mediterranean Natural Gas

The discovery of large deposits of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean has already had a wide-ranging geopolitical impact.

https://katehon.com/en/article/geopolitics-mediterranean-natural-gas

Over the last two decades, a series of major natural gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean have had a profound impact on the international relations of the region. Even more significantly, the geologic evidence suggests that these discoveries are just the beginning of a Mediterranean-wide hydrocarbon bonanza that could significantly transform the geopolitics of the region.

Notwithstanding that the North African countries ringing the southern shore of the Mediterranean are all hydrocarbon producers, the Mediterranean region has been only lightly explored. Estimates of the region's hydrocarbon potential have ranged from North Sea-sized reserves to potentially holding as much as 50 billion barrels of petroleum, or BOP, and upward of 500 trillion cubic feet, or TCF, of natural gas...

Turkey is a logical market for east Mediterranean gas. Neither Israel, Egypt nor Cyprus, three countries with which Ankara has had particularly difficult diplomatic relations, have supported the idea...

Turkey is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS. It therefore does not recognize the exclusive economic zones mandated by UNCLOS for maritime nations.

Is the natural gas in the Med play into the Royal Navy's tour, given that Boris Johnson said, "the deployment will show “our friends in China” that Britain believes in the “international law of the sea.

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The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), also called the Law of the Sea Convention or the Law of the Sea treaty, is an international agreement that resulted from the third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III), which took place between 1973 and 1982. The Law of the Sea Convention defines the rights and responsibilities of nations with respect to their use of the world's oceans, establishing guidelines for businesses, the environment, and the management of marine natural resources.

Natural gas: Why it’s important and what you need to know

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Natural gas is considered "clean energy" and fits in with their green economic goals; and it will power the technological advancements, which require lots of energy.

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Maritime Disputes in the Eastern Med

Greece, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have all taken major steps, directly and through proxies, to advance their energy security and geopolitical interests in the eastern Mediterranean. Russia, which does not border the Mediterranean Sea but has a naval military base in Tartus (Syria), is exerting its influence around nearby countries, including Lebanon. Russia perceives Lebanon as part of the Syrian track, so Moscow will strive to continue playing in this field to capitalize on its influence after intervening in the Syrian conflict. One of Russia’s main goals in the Middle East is to expand its influence in the region and control the energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean.

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The Coming Naval Arms Race in the Eastern Mediterranean

The Eastern Mediterranean is the new natural gas frontier. Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus have the potential to become important gas producers.

The sale of gas could bring influence, but it could also upset the regional balance of power.

Israel, Egypt, Turkey and Greece have all modernised their navies since the first gas fields were discovered in the early 2010s.

The Greek Ministry of Defence has shortlisted six offers from the US, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and France. These warships will be delivered to the Hellenic Navy after 2025 and are likely to be equipped with advanced anti-air missiles.

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