It is not in the interests of Nato for our hold on the Rock to be weakened. Yet that could happen if the EU and Spanish get their way.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Gibraltar cannot be underestimated. It is one of the most important shipping routes in the world. From its iconic Rock, one can look southwards both towards Jebel Musa in Morocco and towards the Spanish exclave of Ceuta, which has been in Portuguese and then Spanish hands for more than six centuries.
Gibraltar, though, has – quite uniquely – been under British rule for more than three centuries. How that happened is a good example of unexpected consequences. At the start of the eighteenth-century, Britain supported a claimant to the Spanish throne who, with British help, used Gibraltar as a base from which to attempt to win Spain in competition with a French rival. He went off to become Holy Roman Emperor instead (not a bad alternative) and Britain only then decided to hold on to the Rock. It proved to be a valuable asset. A line of British bases was eventually created from Gibraltar through Malta and Cyprus to the Suez Canal, which was of enormous strategic and commercial value.
Bits of that defensive line still exist: the RAF base in Gibraltar is matched by the two British bases in Cyprus which, like the Rock, remain sovereign British territory, and are proving their worth in the bitter conflicts in the Middle East. It is certainly not in the interests of Nato for the British hold on these bases to be weakened.
Yet that could very well happen if European Union and Spanish efforts go their way. As talks over the post-Brexit border deal with Spain resume, long standing plans to make its airport into a point of access for travellers to southern Spain – becoming part of the EU’s Schengen Zone – have become entangled with debates over whether joint management of the airport, as suggested by the Spanish, could have a negative impact on UK military activity, since its airstrip is shared between the commercial airport and the RAF base.
All that is entangled with the question where exactly the border lies. Is the airport part of a neutral zone between British territory and Spanish, as some contest? But how can it be, others reply, since it is used by the RAF as a much valued base in the western Mediterranean?
Fundamentally, any agreement that appears in some way to share the airport with Spain can be seen as the thin end of the wedge, increasing Spanish influence in the tiny territory to the point where it finds itself to all intents and purposes re-integrated with the EU. Referenda have shown that the Gibraltarians overwhelmingly wish to remain British, despite being opposed to leaving the EU back in 2016. This puts it in a uniquely difficult position in the context of Brexit, which is why it may have implications far beyond the tip of the Peninsula.
For if Gibraltar were to cede some of the sovereignty of its airport, that would set a precedent. Other countries might look at other British Overseas Territories – such as the Falklands Islands – and request a similar relationship to that Spain has with Gibraltar. If ever agreed, that could mean Argentina sharing parts of British sovereign territory.
Closer to home, such an approach could once again see the EU have a say over British subjects – the beginning of a ‘mission creep’ which might be used to try and influence our relationship with Brussels and, in the end, draw us closer.
In the end, if Spain is happy to co-exist in Iberia with Portugal and Andorra, it should put up with the fact that this tiny notch of Britishness is not part of Spain, just as Ceuta is not part of Morocco. Historical claims based on who ruled what hundreds of years ago have set off enough wars, including the current one in Ukraine. That terrible conflict also underlines why it would be so foolish to concede any of our military presence in Europe to anyone: the international context is simply too febrile and precarious. We need a firm grip on everywhere we have.
While no one is suggesting that Gibraltar will be invaded – even Franco did not manage that – its distinctive identity and its deep loyalty to Britain must not be allowed to be tampered with for any reason. Its significance far outweighs its size.
David Abulafia is Professor Emeritus of Mediterranean History at the University of Cambridge