With no short-term prospect of rain, in the warmest autumn start in history, an annual precipitation deficit of nearly 11 percent, and reservoirs at agonisingly low levels of water, below 36 percent of their capacity, Spain's severe drought worsens.
Following the end of summer, the Iberian Peninsula is experiencing a long-lasting meteorological drought, considering rainfall over the past three years, in all accumulation basins except the Júcar, Segura, and Tajo.
According to data from the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), in the Guadalquivir and Guadiana basins, it is the longest-lasting drought since at least 1961, while in the eastern Pyrenees basin, it is the most intense drought since the beginning of the series.
The initial cause of the droughts is the lack of rainfall (meteorological drought), which results in insufficient water resources to meet existing needs (hydrological drought), something common on the Iberian Peninsula, which has experienced periods of acute water scarcity, including 1979/1983, 1991/1995, 2016/2017, and the current one.
Currently, the data show that the stored water levels hold a total of 20,098 cubic hectometres, which is 35.9% of their capacity, with almost 4,000 hm3 less than the average of the last five years, and up to 7,000 hm3 below the decade's average, according to the Ministry for Ecological Transition.
By basins, the Guadalquivir (18.2%) and the Guadalate-Barbate (15.8%) are experiencing the most severe situations, followed by the Segura (24.3%), Guadiana (23.8%), Mediterranean Andalusia (23.4%), and Catalonia's internal basins (22%).
Regarding the situation of reservoirs by Autonomous Communities, there are strong contrasts in accumulations: Asturias is the region with the highest percentage of stored water (76.5%), followed by the Basque Country (59.9%), Galicia (59.2%), and the Community of Madrid (50.2%).
Behind them, in intermediate positions, are Castilla y León (44%), Valencian Community (42.4%), the Chartered Community of Navarre (41.1%), Extremadura (39.4%), Catalonia (35.5%), and Aragon (32.4%). In the last positions are La Rioja (29.9%), Castilla-La Mancha (28.7%), Region of Murcia (28.3%), Cantabria (24.5%), and Andalusia (20.1%).
It's worth noting that the water stress in reservoirs was already evident and concerning in 2022 when, in the same week, the water reserve marked 32 percent of its capacity, a percentage even lower than the current one and far from the 66.6 percent recorded in 2013, the best data in the last 15 years.
The shortage also affects rainfall, as reflected in the hydrological year, which runs from October 1st to September 30th, and which, pending official confirmation, has ended as the sixth driest of the 21st century and the eleventh in the historical series (1961), with an average precipitation about 11-12 percent below the average.
The previous hydrological year, 2021-2022, was the third driest in the historical series. Ahead of it was 2004-2005, the driest in the historical series, with an average of 415.1 litres per square meter, while 2011-2012, also very dry, was the second driest, with 473.6 litres per square meter.
Regarding possible rainfall for this week and part of the next, an increase in temperatures and a blocking situation are expected, with a powerful high-pressure system at the surface and its ridge at high altitudes, diverting storms northward, leaving the peninsula without precipitation.
For now, until the middle of next week, warmth will prevail due to a warm episode that will not only not lose strength but will intensify, especially in the north, east, and south, with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius in much of the country and up to 34-36 degrees Celsius in large areas of Extremadura and Andalusia.