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https://twitter.com/TrumanBurrbank/status/1579166647109439488
Micheal Hudson in 2015 explains US funding Nazis in Ukraine
2:13min.
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Micheal Hudson in 2015 explains US funding Nazis in Ukraine
Global Tensions Rise Over Russia And Ukraine – What Happens Next?
There comes a point in the lifespan of any economic or political analysis when most of your observations or predictions either become mostly wrong, or mostly right. If you have done your job properly through due diligence, research and applied practical insight, then you will be in a position to point out why the dominoes are falling. People have to understand how these events were predictable so that the can prepare better in the future.
The mainstream media, politicians and global banks will tell the public that “no one could have seen these events coming.” This is a lie. Some of us in the alternative fields did see them coming and with considerable clarity. The establishment and their defenders don’t want you to know that. They will deny up and down that we predicted anything; they’ll claim that we don’t exist, that our analysis never happened, or as a last ditch effort they’ll claim that they saw it all coming before we did.
The mainstream officials and analysts have to maintain their image of public authority, and they can’t do that if “upstarts” in the alternative arena are constantly right while they are constantly wrong. They have all the fancy Ivy League degrees, after all.
In my article ‘The Globalist Reset Agenda Has Failed – Is Ukraine Plan B?’, published in January of this year, I outlined why I believed that a war between Ukraine and Russia was the most likely crisis to follow after the hype of the covid pandemic faded away.
In my article ‘Ukraine Learns The Value Of An Armed Citizenry, But Far Too Late’ I argued the high probability that NATO troops were already on the ground in the region and not just as advisors. According to mounting evidence it is clear that western troops are active in Ukraine and that US and European intel are essentially running the war. In some cases this has been openly admitted. And why wouldn’t they be running the war? It’s being fought entirely with NATO money and NATO weapons.
Then, recently I predicted that the Kremlin was poised to shift strategies, rather than trying to hold larger swaths of territory I believed they would instead seek to use a “tenderizing” strategy and destroy the bulk of Ukrainian infrastructure, specifically electricity and water grids. In my article ‘Escalation: Recent Events Suggest Mounting Economic Danger’ published a month ago I stated that:
“With the amount of propaganda coming from Ukrainian Intelligence and NATO, it’s hard to say what is actually happening, but I suspect Russia is changing strategies and repositioning to deploy missile and artillery bombardment of infrastructure, including power grids and water.”
“This is a tactic that Russia has avoided for months, which is surprising because one of the first measures usually taken by the US during an invasion is to eliminate most key infrastructure (as we did in Iraq). You would think Russia would have done the same, but perhaps they were saving that scenario for winter when it is harder for Ukraine to cope…This would make Ukraine essentially unlivable in the coming winter for most of the population.”
This past week my latest prediction came true, with Russia now striking multiple infrastructure targets using cruise missiles and drones and taking down at least 60% of Ukraine’s electrical grids. These grids are now rerouted to provide SOME power to the affected regions, but in the best case scenario they are only able to be active for 5 hours a day. Kyiv city authorities called on residents and businesses to limit electricity consumption from 5pm until 10pm and urged owners of advertising signs to turn off their lights during this time.
Ukraine has halted all energy exports to Europe in response to the grid damage. Meaning, the EU just lost even more of their primary energy resources on top of the loss of Russian gas and oil.
Some people might claim that the missile attacks were impromptu and were only triggered by the bombing of the destruction of the Kerch Bridge by a Ukrainian truck bomb. This is false. According to Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. general, the intensity and volume of the attacks indicated they were planned well in advance of the weekend’s explosion on a bridge linking Russia and annexed Crimea. Meaning, Russia was going to strike Ukraine infrastructure regardless.
But what does all this mean, and what happens next?
My track record on the crisis has been accurate so far, but you don’t need a crystal ball to see where this situation is headed. First and foremost, the propaganda war is going to go into high gear, with Russia widely condemned for “genocide” as Ukraine civilians face a long winter with little to no electricity and minimal clean water.
To put this in perspective, however, when the US invaded Iraq for the second time during Operation Iraqi Freedom, we annihilated most vital grid resources and left millions of Iraqis without power or water. Hundreds of thousands of civilians died during the war, many of them due to lack of basic necessities. So, we need to be careful about how we throw around the word “genocide,” our glass house breaks just as easily as any other.
I would remind readers that I have no personal interest in either side of this conflict, I’m only interested in the facts on the ground and how they affect the rest of the world and America in particular. I don’t trust Vladimir Putin with his long running ties to globalists in the WEF and his friendship with Henry Kissinger, and I certainly don’t trust the puppet government in Ukraine. I suspect this conflict has been instigated to the benefit of global elitists, and I gave all my reasons why at the very beginning of the war.
I would also remind readers that not long ago there was an aggressive push by Democrats and some GOP Neo-cons to get the American public to support deep US involvement and possibly open troop deployments to Ukraine. This attempt failed for the most part, but they will try again as the conflict escalates. Words like “genocide” are used liberally by propagandists to induce emotional outrage, but these people are rarely honest.
That’s not to say Ukraine isn’t facing disaster, far from it. Until now, they have enjoyed amenities which are rarely available to a country in the midst of invasion, including power and internet communications. This is now changing. As grid systems continue to fail or be destroyed by targeted strikes it is inevitable that millions more Ukrainians will seek to leave the region as refugees to neighboring countries. The influx will definitely create a humanitarian crisis.
Furthermore, the calls by NATO governments for direct intervention will increase to a constant roar and the mainstream media will try to amplify the saber rattling as much as possible.
Ukraine will turn to more asymmetric strikes within Russia, using multiple guerrilla or terrorist actions, more so to elicit a wider response from Russia that might lure America and the EU into open engagement.
Russia will simply bide their time. They are facing minimal economic pressure given they are enjoying an explosion in energy profits and their close trade ties with China and India. All Putin has to do is wait for the NATO weapons and money to run out, which they will, sooner rather than later. From a strategic perspective, it makes sense for Russia to continue targeted strikes rather than trying to grab more territory. That said, a prolonged conflict also helps the establishment as a distraction from the economic crisis that they have caused.
Putin would never admit it, but the Russian presence in Ukraine serves many globalist interests.
The biggest question on everyone’s mind is of course if this will lead to a nuclear event? If we are talking about a global nuclear war, then I think not. If we are talking about a limited regional strike, such as one or two weapons, then yes, the chances are high.
The automatic assumption people will make is that if one nuclear bomb goes off, then ALL the nuclear bombs will go off. This is not necessarily true. A regional strike, most likely by Russia or at least blamed on Russia, would actually be beneficial to globalist interests who could use the image of a mushroom cloud over Ukraine as a tool of ultimate fear and panic. The public might be more malleable and controllable if they thought evil Russians with nukes are about to erase them.
An actual global nuke exchange would NOT be so advantageous for the establishment, as the outcome would be completely unpredictable and the vast infrastructure they have spent generations building would be eliminated in the blink of an eye. I think the globalists will do everything in their power to avoid a worldwide nuclear calamity, but they would certainly try to use the threat to their advantage.
Ukraine’s energy crisis will dovetail with Europe’s impending energy crisis this winter and I doubt there will be many countries in the EU that will avoid economic and supply chain breakdowns. The extent of the crisis will be determined by the harshness of the winter.
As far as America is concerned, I continue to worry most about political optics. I am already seeing a narrative floating around social media platforms that conservatives are complicit with Russia and that in some cases groups that stand against the draconian policies of the establishment and the Biden Administration are actually “Russian agents.”
The strategy here is so transparent it’s almost laughable. As Biden continues to overstep and continues to beat his war drums against half the US population, the claim will be that those of us who respond or resist are not “freedom fighters,” but paid Russian saboteurs. Even those of us that have been fighting this fight for decades will be accused of “treason” and “insurrection” instead of simply defending ourselves against tyranny.
The time is coming for the ultimate gaslighting of the American citizenry – They will try to take away our freedoms and everything we have and accuse us of being villains and foreign agents at the same time. This IS the endgame of the East/West paradigm, at least for Americans. But, if we can see it coming then we can at least prepare for it and warn as many people as possible before it happens.
Crusader Kirill promises heaven to Russians who fight in his holy war
- September 29, 2022
In pursuit of his holy war against the moral depravity, licentiousness (/gay pride) and schismatic heresy of Ukraine, Patriarch Kirill has said that Russian combatants who die in the process of slaughtering Ukrainians will have all their sins forgiven. There is brief but excellent exposition over at the Spectator‘s Coffee House: ‘Kirill’s crusade against Ukraine is more jihadi than Christian‘.
It is worth reading in full, but here’s the key paragraph:
Kirill’s call to violence with the promise of salvation might sound familiar to some western ears. It has something in common with Islamic clerics who encourage their fellow Muslims to become suicide bombers and slaughter the Kuffar – the non-believer – with the promise of martyrdom that will wash away all their sins for the glory of the Ummah (the Muslim world). It is this very kind of Jihad that the Patriarch of Moscow and all Rus’ is preaching to his disciples. While Moscow is quite secure under his spiritual leadership, all Rus’ is occupied by the heretics and schismatics of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine – the non-believers. The people of Holy Rus’ would benefit eternally, his logic goes, from the choice to sacrifice themselves in pursuit of the restoration of the Russkii mir (the Russian world).
It beggars belief that a Church leader – a shepherd of the sheep – would so deceive his flock as to make them believe the strong delusion that if they shoot mothers carrying their babies, bomb hospitals full of the sick and wounded, incinerate defenceless citizens sheltering in a theatre, or slice 80-year-old peasant farmers with shrapnel while they feed their chickens, Jesus will love them a bit more, and God will forgive them their sins – for the glory of Holy Russia.
Don’t they need to be… Christians? Do atheist Russians who die fighting in the Donbass go straight to heaven? Where is the space for the Judgement of God in this? Who crowned Kirill the Crusader Patriarch?
Orthodoxy doesn’t have ‘indulgences‘ (or Purgatory), but this soteriological revelation is as near as dammit: no repentance necessary; trespasses are all forgiven, without any need to forgive any trespasses against them. If Russians fight faithfully against Ukrainians and slaughter them in their thousands, the kingdom of Heaven belongs to such as these. This isn’t only anti-Orthodoxy; it is anti-Christian.
This isn’t the Jesus of peace and reconciliation, but another Jesus, a fanatical spirit, a false gospel of terrorism, murder, and barbarous atrocities. Where is the Spirit-led discernment of Orthodoxy? Where is the faithfulness to the revelation of Scripture? Where is the hermeneutic of the political order which renounces violence and practises love?
For if someone comes to you and preaches a Jesus other than the Jesus we preached, or if you receive a different spirit from the Spirit you received, or a different gospel from the one you accepted, you put up with it easily enough (2 Cor 11:4).
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Patriarch Kirill: 'Russians who die fighting in Ukraine have all their sins...
Israel Shares Intel With Ukraine On Iranian Drones, But Refuses To Sell Iron Dome
A senior Israeli official revealed to the New York Times (NYT) on 12 October that Tel Aviv is providing Ukraine with “basic intelligence” on Iranian drones used by Russia on the battlefield.
The unnamed official also revealed that a private Israeli firm was giving Ukraine satellite imagery of Russian troop positions. In September, western media reported that Kiev had asked Israel to share intelligence on “any support” Iran has been giving to Russia. “The Israelis gave us some intelligence, but we need much more,” a senior Ukrainian official who spoke with Axios was quoted as saying.
Hebrew media revealed earlier that an Israeli defense contractor is supplying anti-drone systems to the Ukrainian military by way of Poland, in order to circumvent Israel’s official stance of not selling advanced arms to Kiev.
The unofficial sales are likely a stopgap measure to make up for the refusal of Israeli officials to sell Ukraine their Iron Dome missile defense system, reportedly in a bid to maintain strategic relations with Russia in Syria.
The Israeli defense and foreign ministries on Wednesday declined to comment on long-standing requests from the government in Kiev and its western backers to acquire the Iron Dome system, including pleas made since this week’s Russian missile barrage.
“Israel has great experience with air defense and Iron Dome, and we need exactly the same system in our city,” Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in an interview 11 October. “We have been talking with them a long time about it. Those discussions have not been successful,” he added.
The reluctance by Tel Aviv to aid its US-sponsored analogue has not changed much since the war erupted in February, drawing the ire of Ukrainian officials. “Everybody knows that your missile defense systems are the best,” President Volodomyr Zelensky said while pleading with the Israeli parliament in the spring.
“I don’t know what happened to Israel,” he said in an interview with French TV5 channel on 23 September. “I am in shock, because I don’t understand why they couldn’t give us air defenses.”
But while unofficial reports attribute Israel’s refusal to a lack of inventory and the system’s shortcomings against long-range missiles, analysts agree Israel cannot arm Ukraine directly without shattering its cooperation with Russia in Syria.
Russia’s Medvedev warns Israel against supplying arms to Ukraine
Russia’s former leader Dmitry Medvedev warned Israel on Monday against supplying weapons to Ukraine, saying any move to bolster Kyiv’s forces would severely damage bilateral ties.
“Israel appears to be getting ready to supply weapons to the Kyiv regime. A very reckless move. It would destroy all bilateral relations between our countries,” the former president and prime minister said in a statement on Telegram.
Israel has sent humanitarian aid including helmets to Ukraine, but it has stopped short of sending weaponry.
The government has sought to maintain ties with Moscow and is wary of Russia’s military presence across its northern frontier in Syria, where the Israeli military regularly launches strikes targeting pro-Iranian elements.
Many Israelis have roots in the former Soviet Union, including Russia and Ukraine.
A spokeswoman for Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who also holds the foreign affairs portfolio, told AFP his office would not be commenting on Medvedev’s remarks.
Waves of suicide drones strike Ukraine's capital, 3 killed
KYIV – Waves of explosive-laden suicide drones struck Ukraine's capital Monday, setting buildings ablaze and sending people scurrying for shelter or attempting to shoot down the kamikazes — a week after Russia unleashed its most widespread strikes against the country in months.
Air attacks in central Kyiv had become a rarity in recent months, and the concentrated use of drones, their blasts echoing across the city, sowed terror and frayed nerves. One of the drones slammed into a residential building, killing three people, said the deputy head of the president’s office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko. Energy facilities were also among the targets.
Drones used in the attack appeared to include Iranian-made Shaheds. Previous Russian airstrikes on Kyiv were mostly with missiles. Intense, sustained bursts of gunfire rang out Monday as the drones hummed overhead, apparently soldiers trying to shoot them down. Others headed for shelter — though city life quickly resumed in a country that has become grimly accustomed to attacks.
In what many fear could become more common occurrences in urban centers nearly eight months in to the war, the barrage came in successive waves of 28 drones, Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said. Five of them plunged into Kyiv itself, said Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
In the Kyiv region, 13 or more were shot down, all of them as they flew in from the south, said a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Yurii Ihnat.
One strike appeared to target the city’s heating network, hitting an operations center. Another slammed into a four-story residential building, ripping a large hole in it and collapsing at least three apartments on top of each other. In addition to the three people killed there, Tymoshenko said 19 were rescued from the rubble, four of them wounded. Rescue workers searching for victims scrambled over the debris from which gray smoke billowed.
An Associated Press photographer who was out shooting morning scenes of Kyiv caught one of the drones on camera, its triangle-shaped wing and pointed warhead clearly visible against the blue sky.
“The whole night, and the whole morning, the enemy terrorizes the civilian population," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a social media post. “Kamikaze drones and missiles are attacking all of Ukraine.”
“The enemy can attack our cities, but it won’t be able to break us," he wrote.
The Iranian-made Shaheds, which Russia has rebranded as Geran-2 drones, pack an explosive charge and can linger over targets before nosediving into them. They can be fired one after the other.
Andrii Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, confirmed in a social media post that Shahed drones were among those used in the strike. Iran has previously denied providing Russia with weapons, although its Revolutionary Guard chief has boasted about providing arms to the world’s top powers, without elaborating.
The drones have also been repeatedly used by Russia elsewhere in Ukraine in recent weeks to target urban centers and infrastructure, including power stations. They are comparatively cheap, costing in the region of US$20,000.
Their use in swarms presents a challenge to Ukrainian air defenses, said Ihnat, the Air Force spokesman. Western nations have promised to bolster Ukrainian air defenses with systems that can shoot down drones but much of that weaponry has yet to arrive and, in some cases, may be months away.
“The challenges are serious because the air defense forces and means are the same as they were at the beginning of the war," Ihnat said. Some air defense weaponry supplied by Western nations can only be used during daylight hours when targets are visible, he added.
After months during which strikes in central Kyiv were rare, early morning strikes last week put Kyiv as well as the rest of the country back on edge.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said those strikes were in retaliation for the bombing of a bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula with the Russian mainland. Putin blames Ukraine for masterminding the blast, which suspended traffic over the bridge and curtailed Moscow's ability to supply Russian troops in the occupied regions of southern Ukraine.
The strike on Kyiv comes as fighting has intensified in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in recent days, as well as the continued Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Zelenskyy said in his Sunday evening address that there was heavy fighting around the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar in the Donetsk region.
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions make up the industrial east known as the Donbas, and were two of four regions annexed by Russia in September in defiance of international law.
On Sunday, the Russian-backed regime in the Donetsk region said Ukraine had shelled its central administrative building in a direct hit. No casualties were reported.
NATO pushing for escalation? We are being played (again) people, we are being played . . . October 16, 2022 Steve Cook
Now there are reports that Ukraine is bringing in fighters from ISIS and Al Qaeda to help them fight Russia.
U.S. military officials have been saying that the Ukrainian army is all but decimated.
Who is paying these fighters from the Middle East? Why are they needed?
And why won’t the West come to the peace talk table when Russia said as recently as Tuesday that they are still waiting? And now NATO has attacked inside Russian borders, which escalates the consequences for us all.
Crushing Ukraine - Iran Sends 2000 km Fateh-110
Zolfaghar and Arash-2 to Russia - Russia & Iran Will
Leave No Stone Unturned In Globalization Of The War
By Vassilis Kapoulas
10-17-22
If Iran has such a large arsenal that enables it to supply Russia in huge quantities, some sources speak of 2-3,000 drones, then Israel should review the size of Tehran and Hezbollah's arsenal!
In addition to this, Iran's new arms deliveries to Russia will increase US and Western pressure on Israel to get involved militarily in Ukraine against Russia. Something like this will bring involvement and escalation in Syria and the Middle East as well.
And this without counting the compensation that Iran will get such as Su-35 and Su-57...
Undoubtedly, the conflict in Ukraine is globalizing to a dangerous degree. The Arash-2s were created specifically to hit targets in Israel. Therefore, their use in Ukraine is a rehearsal for the Middle East.
An Iranian analyst, speaking about Iran-Russia cooperation, emphasized that "Soon Zelensky will have to speak Farsi!"
"Military cooperation between Iran and Russia is not connected to the war in Ukraine, it just entered a new phase a long time ago.
Iran's involvement in the Ukraine war is dangerously deepening as in the context of the new generalized attack prepared by Russian General S.Surovikin, he is preparing to send Fateh-110, Zolfaghar ballistic missiles as well as the most modern Arash-2 kamikaze drones.
All three Iranian weapons will multiply the strike capabilities of the Russian Army. It is now clear that the new Commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, General S.Surovikin, wants to pulverize the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the infrastructure of Ukraine in order to reduce the risk for the ground forces.
It is hard to imagine what will be left of this Ukraine that does not have a decent anti-aircraft defense. With successive barrages of ballistic missiles, Russian and Iranian, such as Iskander, Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar combined with cruise missiles and Swarms of kamikaze drones Arash-2, Shahed-136, Russian Lancets change the whole course of the war.
The bad thing for Ukraine is that Iran's ballistic missiles such as Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar have already been used in Syria and Iraq and have proven their reliability. They are extremely accurate with a range of up to 700 km, 200 more than the Russian Iskander!
But the attempt to flatten Ukraine by Russia and Iran sends a very clear message to the West and Israel, and here a serious problem arises for the Jewish state.
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Israel's Prime Minister Yair Lapid is expected to hold a telephone conversation with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kolyeva on Thursday, during which Kolyeva will give an official request for air defense aid. However, an Israeli security official told Ynetnews that sending military aid to Ukraine won't happen in the near future, despite Israel's "understanding of the plight of the Ukrainians and the desire to help them."
Ukraine to officially ask Israel for air defense aid
'More and more people want Israel to stop sitting on the fence. There’s a growing wish to make a point'
Ukraine’s foreign minister said Tuesday that Kyiv would officially request Israel to immediately send air defense supplies, as Russia continues to shower its neighbor with missiles almost eight months into its invasion.
The discussion over air supplies comes amid internal spats in Israel over deepening its cooperation with Ukraine while keeping “very sensitive” relations with Russia relatively secure.
While Israel condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and provided Kyiv with humanitarian aid, the Jewish state has refrained from sending military support, citing concern for cooperation with Moscow in Syria.
Israel's Prime Minister Yair Lapid is expected to hold a telephone conversation with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kolyeva on Thursday, during which Kolyeva will give an official request for air defense aid. However, an Israeli security official told Ynetnews that sending military aid to Ukraine won't happen in the near future, despite Israel's "understanding of the plight of the Ukrainians and the desire to help them."
“There’s an understanding with Russia, basically a deconfliction mechanism that allows Israel to conduct operations against targets in Syria,” said Oded Eran, a senior researcher with Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
The veteran Israeli diplomat told i24NEWS that Israel’s concerns in the matter also stretch to the vast Jewish population in Russia.
“There is a large Jewish community in Russia, and Israel worries that they could be in danger of harsh treatment if and when Russian authorities decide to punish them for Israeli actions in Ukraine,” Eran said.
Last week, Ukraine's ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, told i24NEWS that his country expected much more from Israel, specifically "defensive weapons and equipment.”
With coordination efforts between Jerusalem and Kyiv having been initiated weeks ago, Russia accused Israel of planning to supply weapons to Ukraine, warning that such a move would harm “very sensitive” ties between Jerusalem and Moscow.
But Israel’s Justice Minister Gideon Saar told Army Radio on Tuesday that “our support for Ukraine does not include weapons systems and weaponry – and there is no change to that position.”
Eran indicated that, while he sees “no problem in supplying Ukraine with certain items of weaponry,” the Ukrainian request might be a political one rather than military.
“I wonder to what extent Ukraine needs Israeli supplies. If you look at the levels of supplies coming from Europe or the United States, they have gotten almost every type of air defense missile you could think of,” he suggested.
“There could be more political points in Ukraine’s request – maybe they are rather requesting political support in the form of air defense supplies.”
Asked if he expects Israel to meet the Ukrainian request in the coming days, Eran pointed to “growing pressure in Israel to express some sort of political support.”
“More and more people want Israel to stop sitting on the fence. There’s a growing wish to make a point. Each country has its own considerations and concerns. In Israel, we have room for flexibility to express our position.”
Biden’s Tech-War Goes Nuclear
by Mike Whitney | Oct 18, 2022 | Biden’s Tech-War Goes Nuclear | The Truthseeker)
Mike Whitney – The Unz review Oct 17, 2022
“Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday. To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship. Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight. One round of sanctions from Biden did more damage than all four years of performative sanctioning under Trump. Although American semiconductor exporters had to apply for licenses during the Trump years, licenses were approved within a month.
With the new Biden sanctions, all American suppliers of IP blocks, components, and services departed overnight – thus cutting off all service [to China]. Long story short, every advanced node semiconductor company is currently facing comprehensive supply cut-off, resignations from all American staff, and immediate operations paralysis. This is what annihilation looks like: China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight. Complete collapse. No chance of survival.”
The Biden administration intensified its war on China last week when it detonated a thermonuclear bomb at the heart of Beijing’s booming technology industry. In an effort to block China’s access to crucial semiconductor technology, Team Biden announced onerous new export rules aimed at a “comprehensive supply cut-off” of essential semiconductor technology which– according to one analyst– led to an “immediate operations paralysis.” The terror unleashed by the announcement was aptly summarized in a thread posted at Jordan Schneider’s Twitter account from a translated thread at @lidangzzz (See above quote)
Naturally, the Chinese government was blindsided by the draconian new rules which include “all Chinese advanced computing chip design companies” and will undoubtedly “ensure the elimination of all American products and technologies from the entire ecosystem.” The new sanctions regime will likely inflict significant damage on China’s thriving technology industry while causing considerable harm to US partners who were not consulted on the matter. But while the announcement was a complete surprise, it does fit with the much more extensive list of hostile US actions towards China in the last few months. Some of these include:
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Multiple US delegations (Nancy Pelosi and other sitting Congressmen) traveled to Taiwan to challenge the One-China policy that has been the cornerstone for normal relations between the two countries for the last 40 years.
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The Biden Administration’s persistent determination to provide South Korea with a lethal missile defence system that can be used for offensive purposes and which threatens Chinese security
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Two U.S. carrier groups conduct exercises in South China Sea
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And, now–according to the Financial Times– The EU is being urged to rethink its China policy
While in no way exhaustive, the list should give the reader some sense of the uptick in belligerence that is presently aimed at Beijing. Hectoring China has become a full-time job which is not entirely unexpected as US-China “containment” policy dates back as far as the Cold War. What’s different now –as Biden’s 2022 National Security Strategy indicates– is that the US sees itself in the midst of a “great power struggle” in which the primary enemy is China who is regarded as “the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the capability to reshape the international order.” (NSS) In other words, the Biden administration is admitting that we are at war with China and that we must use any means necessary to prevail in that conflict. As foreign policy analyst Andre Damon recently noted, the NSS is not a strategy for the defense of the Republic but a “blueprint for World War 3”.
Indeed, so containment alone will no longer suffice. What is required is increasingly provocative actions that will help to isolate, vilify and, ultimately, weaken China so that it becomes a “responsible stakeholder” in the “rules-based system”. In other words, Biden seeks a compliant vassal who will click his heels and do as he is told.
Sound familiar?
Biden’s onerous new export rules fit perfectly within this broader strategy of persistent confrontation and hostility. It also jibes with the oft-repeated neoconservative view that there is “no hope of coexistence with China as long as the Communist Party governs the country.” So, once again, we can see that the administration’s attacks on China are not merely designed to “contain” Chinese development but are also aimed at regime change. We believe that the recent ratcheting up of Biden’s Tech War has nothing to do with national security concerns (like “still-emerging fields of artificial intelligence and quantum computing”) but is actually another desperate attempt to preserve Washington’s loosening grip on global power. Here’s how author Jon Bateman summed it up in an article at Foreign Policy Magazine:
“The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced new… limits on the export to China of advanced semiconductors, chip-making equipment, and supercomputer components. The controls… reveal a single-minded focus on thwarting Chinese capabilities at a broad and fundamental level.... the primary damage to China will be economic, on a scale well out of proportion to Washington’s cited military and intelligence concerns….This shift portends even harsher U.S. measures to come, not only in advanced computing but also in other sectors (like biotech, manufacturing, and finance) deemed strategic. The pace and details are uncertain, but the strategic objective and political commitment are now clearer than ever. China’s technological rise will be slowed at any price.” (“Biden is Now All-In on Taking Out China”, Jon Bateman, Foreign Policy Magazine)
There it is in black and white. The US is going to do whatever it takes to preserve its top spot in the global order “come hell or high water.” And Bateman is right, there will undoubtedly be “even harsher U.S. measures to come, not only in advanced computing but also in other sectors (like biotech, manufacturing, and finance)” And that, of course, means more sanctions and tariffs, more disruption to vital supply-lines, and higher costs for everything. If you thought the war with Russia impacted energy prices, “You ain’t seen nothing yet!” Winding back 40 years of globalization is going to be an excruciating experience tantamount to major dental surgery absent the Novocain. This is from Reuters:
“The U.S. is scrambling to tackle unintended consequences of its new export curbs on China’s chip industry that could inadvertently harm the semiconductor supply chain, people familiar with the matter said….as of midnight Tuesday, vendors also could not support, service and send non-U.S. supplies to the China-based factories without licenses if U.S. companies or people are involved. As a result, even basic items like light bulbs, springs, and bolts that keep tools running may not have been able to be shipped until vendors are granted licenses. And without the minute-by-minute support the foundries need, they could begin shutting down, one source said...
The U.S. planned to review licenses for non-Chinese factories in China hit by the new restrictions on a case-by-case basis, but even if approved that could create delays in shipments. Licenses for Chinese chip factories were likely to be denied.” (“U.S. scrambles to prevent export curbs on China chips from disrupting supply chain“, Reuters)
See what I mean? More supply-line disruption means higher prices, more battered household budgets, and fewer American families able to scrape by on their shrinking wages. Does anyone in Washington think about these things before they set the wheels in motion? The Biden administration is so obsessed with containing China, it is willing to send US standards-of-living off a cliff while bringing the world even closer to nuclear annihilation. Here’s more background from an article at the Asia Times:
The US measures won’t affect China’s sensors, satellite surveillance, military guidance and other strategic systems because the vast majority of military applications use older chips that China can produce at home…..The new US restrictions won’t stop China’s 2,000 surface-to-ship and surface-to-surface missiles from targeting US aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific, or US air bases in Guam and Okinawa, and they won’t prevent China’s more than 1,000 interceptors from aiming long-range air-to-air missiles at US planes…
It will also elicit an all-out Chinese effort to replace American chip-making and design technology. CapEx and R&D will shrink drastically in the US semiconductor industry while China allocates a massive budget to the sector.
On a five- or ten-year horizon, America’s technological edge in semiconductor design and fabrication is likely to vanish. As capital budgets collapse in the Western semiconductor industry, the damage to the US and other Western economies is likely to be greater than the harm inflicted on China...an all-out US ban on chip sales to China would eliminate 37% of the revenue of US semiconductor companies, lead to … the loss of 15,000 to 40,000 highly skilled direct jobs in the US semiconductor industry.”..
At worst, the damage to China’s economy is likely to be temporary… But the impact of the incipient depression in the Western semiconductor industry may well do permanent harm. (“China chip ban a US exercise in extreme self-harm”, Asia Times)
So, it could all backfire like the poorly thought-out sanctions on Russia that have thrust all Europe into an unprecedented energy crisis?
Yep, that’s what he’s saying. The new rules will cause China some short-term pain but—in the long run—they will only hurt American industry. It’s another classic example of ‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’, which appears to be Biden’s MO on a great number of issues.
It’s worth noting, that the Biden plan is another giant leap towards “de-globalization. (which is the reimposing of cross-border trade barriers in order to prevent further economic integration and lower costs.) For decades, business and political leaders have been touting the virtues of offshoring businesses and outsourcing jobs as if that was the true expression of God’s divine plan. But now that China’s growth threatens US global hegemony, foreign policy elites have done a quick 180. Now the globalization genie must be drawn-and-quartered and shoved back into his bottle so the West can preserve its primacy by effectively divorcing itself from the Chinese powerhouse.
By the way, “decoupling” is the new buzzword among foreign policy wonks. What the word implies is that the US must implement “some degree of technological separation from China, but shouldn’t go so far as to harm U.S. interests in the process.” In other words, Washington is on track to selectively terminate many areas of commerce with China while trying not to shoot itself in its own foot.
Good luck with that.
So, where is all of this heading, you ask?
To more conflict, more confrontation, higher prices, lower standards of living and, eventually, a disintegration of the prevailing order. That much is certain. The problem, of course, is that the China hawks now control the levers of power in Washington which means that the attacks on China will intensify, decoupling will accelerate, and a massively-destabilizing international crisis will soon follow.
The Biden administration is squandering American power on unilateral actions it cannot enforce and that will no have meaningful impact on China’s development. They’d be better off looking for ways to ease the transition to a new world, then pathetically trying to turn back the clock to the bygone “unipolar moment”.
West’s hostile actions towards Russia the true reason of Ukrainian events — Damascus
Feysal Mikdad noted that Syria also faces unfriendly actions of the West, including on the issue of repatriation of refugees
MOSCOW, October 20. /TASS/. The real reason behind the event in Ukraine it the West’s desire to dictate its own terms and act hostile towards Russia, Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Migration Feysal Mikdad said Thursday.
"What is happening in Ukraine today once again demonstrates the trends of diktat and hostility of the West towards the Russian Federation, its security and stability. This is the true reason behind the current situation in Ukraine," Mikdad said during the meeting of the inter-agency coordination headquarters of Syria and Russia on repatriation of Syrian refugees.
He noted that Western attempts to interfere in internal affairs of other states and dictate how to they should use their own riches and their own future violate all norms of international law and the UN Charter.
"I will use this moment to once again reiterate Syria’s support of the Russian special military operation and the Russia’s right for self-defense and protection of its national security," Mikdad underscored.
He noted that Syria also faces unfriendly actions of the West, including on the issue of repatriation of refugees.
"To our huge regret, the efforts exerted by the Syrian state and the friendly countries, such as the Russian Federation, for example, are still being met with some states and organizations using this exclusively humanitarian issue to achieve their political goals," the Foreign Minister said.
West’s hostile actions towards Russia the true reason of Ukrainian events — Damascus - World - TASS
What Does Russia Hope to Achieve by Bombing Ukrainian Cities?
Russia’s recent aerial bombardment of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities is a response to several new and unforeseen problems that the Kremlin has found itself facing in recent weeks.
First and foremost was the mass withdrawal of Russian troops from the vicinity of Kharkiv and Lyman, which caught most Russian commentators unaware, regardless of their views on the war. Despite the mixed results of the first six months of the war, there was skepticism in Russia that Ukraine could really launch a counteroffensive.
Accordingly, Russia’s severe military setbacks in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions could not fail to cause dismay, and sparked a widespread desire to find a scapegoat, forcing the powers that be to engage with the public more than usual. This, in turn, had the effect of emboldening the public to be far more critical of the military campaign, which had until recently been widely considered to be nothing but victorious.
On top of this, it also became apparent that the Russian establishment had no plan in place for presenting a united front over the implementation of the partial mobilization announced by the Kremlin.
Although the public reaction to the announcement was calmer than many had predicted, criticism of the military top brass over its erratic implementation was so widespread that it threw into question the seemingly self-evident theory about people rallying around the regime at a time of war. Combined with the shock of Russia’s military losses, it created the impression that the Russian political class was losing the ability to demonstrate any unity on difficult issues.
Against the backdrop of the mobilization, the announcement of the annexation of four “new territories” from Ukraine failed to spark any public euphoria, and indeed went largely unnoticed for many reasons. For a start, in contrast with the key port and popular holiday destination of Crimea that Russia annexed back in 2014, there is no coherent image of the Donbas or Kherson region in Russian historical memory. In addition, the public part of the annexation process—the sham referendums—was not portrayed very successfully. It’s entirely possible that had the Kremlin announced the annexation after the explosion on the Kerch bridge connecting Russia and Crimea, it would have been seen as a more dynamic and successful move, and might have attracted more attention.
Finally, the explosion and damage it caused to the bridge, built at great expense by Russia and only completed in 2018, was an obvious source of stress, since it immediately seemed clear that Ukraine was behind the attack. It might seem that the sinking back in the spring of Russia’s Moskva warship—the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship—should have been a far more significant and dramatic event, yet, psychologically, it was borne more easily by Russian society, which took until the autumn to start to notice that the Ukrainians’ military capabilities are in fact more or less comparable to its mighty enemy’s.
The Russian leadership’s response to this turn of events was to launch a wave of deadly missile strikes across Ukrainian cities on Oct. 10–11, followed by drone attacks in Kyiv on Oct. 17. The attacks look like an attempt by the Russian establishment to convince itself and others that Russia still has enough determination, energy, and resources to regain the military initiative.
Putin Seeks Escalation with Ukraine Missile Blitz – Expert(Putin Seeks Escalation with Ukraine Missile Blitz – Experts - The Moscow Times)
The aerial bombardment was supposed to prevent the growing concern in Russian society from turning into negative feelings toward the authorities. The Kremlin was trying to stop the nascent discord among the ranks of the most loyal sections of the population: women, residents of “deepest, darkest” Russia, and the domestic republics formed around Russia’s distinct ethnic groups. They had all, until now, been a crucial social pillar of the regime, but were less than enthusiastic about the announcement of the mobilization. The missile strikes were supposed to reposition Moscow’s actions in the eyes of these people as “defensive,” and aimed at ensuring the safety of Russia’s own people in response to the degrading actions of its enemy.
From a military viewpoint, the mass bombing of Ukraine on Oct. 10–11 enabled the Kremlin to increase the ambiguity surrounding Russia’s intentions. It was supposed to demonstrate Moscow’s determination, but was not accompanied by any explanation of what it was meant to achieve: was it planned as a defensive measure against the Ukrainian counterattack around Kherson? To prevent Russian troops from getting split up near Berdyansk or Melitopol? To freeze the status quo ahead of possible future talks? To drag out the conflict in the hope of beefing up the army following the retraining of the newly mobilized soldiers? Or to create an excuse for using a nuclear weapon?
The spontaneous bombardment also allowed Moscow to show that it was not simply doing nothing. Those who already believed in Russia’s military potential saw confirmation of the theory that Russia hadn’t even gotten started yet, while those who considered the explosion on the bridge to Crimea a blatant humiliation could see for themselves that the insult had not gone unpunished.
Yet simply taking action, however demonstratively, is no guarantee of being able to change the situation or solve existing problems. The military effectiveness of bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is debatable. The difficulties in relations with other former Soviet neighbors have not been solved. The theory that the mobilization would boost the combat capabilities of Russia’s armed forces has yet to be proven.
Nor has the divide in Russian society that occurred in September been bridged. The apathetic majority is having to expend more and more energy in order not to notice what is happening but still balks at joining either the anti-war or radically pro-war minorities. There is no consensus on whether Russia has enough resources and energy to undertake further radical measures.
For now, therefore, the missile strikes don’t provide an answer to the main question: whether Moscow is prepared to regain the military initiative and start using methods that will yield more concrete results, or whether it is simply reacting to Kyiv’s actions, running the risk of falling into yet another trap.
What Does Russia Hope to Achieve by Bombing Ukrainian Cities? - The Moscow Times
Is The HIMARS Multiple Rocket Launch System a Game Changer?
Short answer, no. At least not for Ukraine’s military. But it is a game changer for Lockheed Martin stockholders, with the defense contractor enjoying great publicity and new orders. Although the Ukrainians are firing hundreds of HIMARS a month they are having limited success in causing significant damage to the Russian military personnel and ammo depots. In fact, it appears Russia is shooting most of the HIMARS rockets out of the sky with their air defense systems. That lack of success has not stopped Lockheed from locking down new contracts with the Department of Defense.
Nonetheless, the number HIMARS GMLRS rockets shot down by Russian air defense systems appears to be at least 500. If we assume that all of the 623 rockets reported downed by Russia were HIMARS, that represents $62.3 million dollars worth of rockets. If the HIMARS were wiping out Russian troops, command headquarters and ammunition depots on a daily basis do you think Ukraine and the Western media would report it? Absolutely!! So it is the lack of reporting on this that catches my eye. I think this offers indirect evidence that bolsters the credibility of the claims by the Russian MOD.