From large-scale weather variability to localized extremes: Researchers at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and TU Freiberg develop a framework to better predict extreme rainfall events in Mediterranean countries.
“It is extremely challenging to forecast many days in advance when and where heavy rainfall will occur. Thus, researchers strive to develop new tools to better predict these phenomena allowing for early warnings and adequate mitigation strategies”, explains first author Nikolaos Mastrantonas.
This new study showed that there is a strong relation between these nine patterns and the occurrence of extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean. “In fact, we can use this information to better predict extreme rainfall one week or longer in advance”, says Prof. Jörg Matschullat of TU Bergakademie Freiberg. The geoecologist supervises Nikolaos Mastrantonas’ PhD and adds: “The precipitation forecasts are, in general, reliable up to 7–8 days ahead.
For locations on mountainous or coastal areas, like parts of western Turkey, the western Balkans, the Iberian Peninsula, and Morocco, we can even have reliable forecasts up to 14 days ahead, the team reports.