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The AI That Triggered a War: How Palantir and the IAEA Fueled Israel’s Strike on Iran

A $50M software built for counterinsurgency now steers nuclear diplomacy... and may have lit the fuse for a regional war.

On June 12, 2025, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” a sweeping air campaign that bombed Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, scorched Esfahan, and attempted to breach the fortified Fordow bunker. Hundreds died—among them IRGC commander Hossein Salami, nuclear scientist Fereydoon Abbasi, and numerous civilians. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a strike on “the heart” of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. President Donald Trump, backed by CENTCOM’s Gen. Michael Kurilla, warned of “brutal” consequences, citing a May 31 IAEA report that flagged 409kg of 60% enriched uranium—allegedly enough for nine bombs if refined.

“The IAEA resolution gave Israel a pretext to attack our facilities.” — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi

But what if the intelligence fueling this war came not from Mossad or Pentagon satellites but from a UN agency’s software? Since 2015, the IAEA has relied on Palantir’s Mosaic platform, a $50-million AI system that sifts 400 million data points—satellite imagery, social media, personnel logs—to predict nuclear threats. On June 12, Iran leaked documents it claimed showed IAEA chief Rafael Grossi shared Mosaic outputs with Israel, effectively turning the agency into a “tool for aggression.” The charge echoes a pattern: prior to 2025, Mosaic data helped shape sanctions and even UN aid decisions despite risks of bias .