We have a new foreign minister in Spain. The effect of this change, on the ongoing position engaging Gibraltar at Brexit, is not likely to be felt. Many indicators point to the improbability of any fundamental derailing of the process already begun.
On Saturday, Pedro Sanchez, the PSOE Spanish President, announced the appointment of Jóse Manuel Albares. He replaces Arancha González Laya.
NO NOVICE TO GIBRALTAR ISSUE
Mr. Albares seems, in his prior appointments, to have already been involved in matters engaging Gibraltar. Accordingly, he does not come in as a novice to where Spain and the UK find themselves over Gibraltar today.
He seems rather to stand in a strong position to be able to continue the process started before his appointment. Indeed, it was started by Alfonso Dastis, the PP Spanish foreign secretary, who preceded even Ms. González Laya, which itself is a sign of institutional commitments on the part of the ministry of foreign affairs.
SPAIN’S POSITION DEFINED
More importantly, the Spanish position concerning Gibraltar’s future relationship with the EU is already broadly agreed. That agreement is public. It is contained in the framework agreement arrived at midnight on the 31st December 2020.
It is that process which is to be continued.
FRAMEWORK LEADS TO EU WIDE TREATY
In his speech to Parliament, in mid-January this year, the Chief Minister, Fabian Picardo opened saying, “… we have reached an in principle framework agreement with the United Kingdom and Spain for a potential treaty between the United Kingdom and the European Union to govern the future relationship between the EU and Gibraltar.”
Importantly, this statement confirms that Spain has agreed with the UK over Gibraltar where the EU is concerned. It puts Spain and the UK on the same side, within the parameters of that framework agreement, to go forward together for the EU and the UK to reach a treaty on how the EU and Gibraltar will interact in the future.
What is to come, as Mr. Picardo says, is a negotiation between the EU and the UK for a treaty involving how and what will be Gibraltar’s relationship with the EU. That being so, the participation of Mr. Albares will be in a capacity of one of 27 member states of the EU, but him working, in that capacity, within a framework already agreed by his PSOE Government.
EU WILL NOT LET SPAIN DOWN
Certainly, we still wait patiently for the EU negotiating mandate. There is undoubtedly huge potential for the EU to raise complex issues within that negotiating mandate, which will need to be worked through before arriving at a treaty.
It would be unusual, however, and a slap in the face to Spain, if those issues, raised by Spain’s club, the EU, were incompatible with the framework agreement. That is not how the EU works. The EU will plough a course for itself, but that course will be carefully worked out within the furrows permitted by what its member/members, in this case, Spain, have publicly agreed.
SPAIN WILL NOT EMBARRASS EU
Reciprocally, it would be wrong for Spain, an EU member state, to place the EU in an embarrassing place by changing that which it has done in the framework agreement, simply because there has been a change in the identity of the foreign minister. That is not how international relations and diplomacy works.
In international relations, there is a momentum towards conformity to that which has been progressed by predecessors; absent the ability to change these without consequences on others in one’s own club, in this case, the EU.
ALBARES’ HISTORY POINTS TO NO CHANGE
The likelihood of continuation without change, on the Gibraltar Brexit front, is magnified by the history of Mr. Albares’ public career, and the reason for the change in the Ministry. `
That change was not propelled by Gibraltar. It was driven by the acts of Ms. González Laya concerning Morocco.
Mr. Albares is an experienced diplomat, although he put that career to one side in 2015 to join Mr. Sanchez’s team. He went back to a career as a diplomat following the PSOE lack of success at the polls, but with a strong desire to return to Mr. Sanchez’s side on being summonsed, which he did on being called, in 2018.
In 2018, Mr. Albares became PSOE Government Secretary General for International Affairs. A post which would have involved him in the ongoing matters relating to Gibraltar. Following a spell in this position he returned to Paris, as Spanish ambassador to France.
All that is evidence that, politically, he is an avid supporter and strongly loyal to Mr. Sanchez. Mr. Sanchez is publicly committed to the policy towards Gibraltar as is envisaged by the framework agreement.
PRESIDENT AND FOREIGN MINISTER STAND TOGETHER
He is now the Spanish Foreign Minister. In that capacity he has the full support and confidence of Mr. Sanchez to see matters over Gibraltar through, and to resolve/dissolve the row with Morocco. He stands alone in that position, but together with, and as the lone advisor to, Mr. Sanchez on foreign and international matters.
As foreign minister, he has the responsibility to support Mr. Sanchez in seeing the forthcoming negotiations between the EU and the UK on Gibraltar through. All points to him participating in these within the terms of the framework agreement. So, all change at the Spanish foreign ministry points to no or little change over Gibraltar in the next months.