How Norway Could Be Attacked by Russia
“It’s more likely that there will be an attack and a war than not,” says a lieutenant colonel and researcher at the Norwegian Military Academy. A Ukrainian report warns of major Norwegian vulnerabilities.
Øystein Windstad
Journalist
Published September 29, 2026 - 6:00 a.m. Last updated September 29, 2026 - 8:56 a.m.
Short version
Ukrainian think tank warns Norway of inadequate defenses against missiles and drones
Researcher and lieutenant colonel believe an attack on Norway is likely
Norwegian oil and gas are identified as Russian targets
Lieutenant colonel says Norwegian brigades would last a maximum of two weeks in combat today.
“Norway’s plans for rearmament and defense take a long time, compared to what Russia is capable of right now,” Polina Istomina tells Forsvarets forum.
She represents the Ukrainian think tank and analysis center, the Sahaidachnyi Security Center.
They have produced the report The Battle of Norway, in which they examine the Russian strategies and methods used against Ukraine.
Based on this, the think tank highlights what Norway can expect if Putin were to launch an attack.
PHOTO: Polina Istomina of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center advises Norway to mass-produce drones, among other things. Photo: Gregory Vepryk
The report warns of major gaps and weaknesses in Norway’s defenses against the Russian war machine. Istomina warns that it will take several years before Norway and other European countries are fully rearmed.
Will Cut Off the Power
Trygve Smidt is a lieutenant colonel and researcher affiliated with the Norwegian Military Academy. He has read the report and says the Ukrainian assessment of Norway is sound.
“I think they’ve hit the mark pretty well in their analysis of Norway’s vulnerabilities,” Smidt tells Forsvarets forum.
Both the Ukrainian think tank Sahaidachnyi Security Center and Smidt believe the most likely scenario is that Russia will target Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
RESEARCHER: Trygve Smidt is a retired lieutenant colonel and a researcher at the Norwegian Military Academy, where his work focuses, among other things, on Russia’s conduct of war in Ukraine. Photo: Øystein Windstad, Forsvarets forum
“If Russia attacks the Baltic countries, the Russians will simultaneously strike where it hurts the most. That is Norwegian oil and gas—primarily gas supplies to Europe. It is highly likely that Russia will seek to sabotage and attack this infrastructure so that, among other things, they can undermine Europe’s ability to supply electricity,” says the lieutenant colonel, continuing:
“Norway is a very important supplier of energy to Europe. Last year, 33 percent of the gas consumed by the EU and the United Kingdom came from Norway. The gas we export amounts to 1,270 terawatt-hours, which is nine times Norway’s electricity consumption,” says Smidt.
He describes Norway’s undersea infrastructure as very vulnerable and points out that there are nearly 900 mil of Norwegian gas pipelines on the seabed.
Russia could attack Norway with these
The overview below shows the missiles Russia most frequently uses against Ukraine and that could be used against Norway in a conflict.
Iskander – a ballistic missile with a range of 500 km and a warhead weighing up to 700 kg.
Kh-101 “Kodiak” – cruise missile with a range of 3,500 km and a 400 kg warhead.
RM-48U – ballistic missile with a range of 400 km and a 200 kg warhead
Kh-59/Kh-69 – cruise missile with a range of 115 km and a 300 kg warhead.
Kalibr – cruise missile with a range of 2,500 km and a 450 kg warhead.
Geran-2 – a propeller-driven, low-cost drone with a range of 2,500 km and a 50 kg warhead.
Geran-3 – a jet-powered, faster drone with a range of 1,000 km and a 50 kg warhead.
Banderol – a low-cost cruise missile with a range of 500 km and a 150 kg warhead.
Kinzhal – a hypersonic ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km and a 480 kg warhead.
Norway’s Vulnerability
The report The Battle of Norway points out that Norway has no means of shooting down ballistic missiles. Norway’s defenses against drones and missiles are described as vulnerable. Lieutenant Colonel Smidt agrees.
“Yes, it’s true that we’re defenseless. The report states the facts as they are. This is the information they’ve gathered from open sources,” he says, elaborating.
Facts
Findings from the report on Norway
The report *The Battle of Norway* highlights several challenges facing Norway.
Norway lacks defenses against everything from cheap, mass-produced drones to hypersonic and ballistic missiles.
It is difficult to monitor and protect the thousands of kilometers of undersea cables and gas pipelines.
The Home Guard and the Armed Forces have too few personnel to cover such a large geographic area without extensive automation.
Norway is prepared for traditional warfare involving aircraft, ships, and submarines, not large numbers of drones and cheap autonomous sabotage.
Power plants, ports, air bases, and other critical infrastructure can be attacked without Russia needing to invade with soldiers.
Norway’s military buildup will take time, and many capabilities will not be in place until after 2029.
“We have absolutely no defense against ballistic missiles or hypervelocity missiles. Even after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this has not been addressed,” says Smidt. A hypervelocity missile travels even faster than a hypersonic missile and destroys its target with pure kinetic energy, often without a warhead.
Facts
Findings in the Report on Norway
The report *The Battle of Norway* highlights several challenges facing Norway.
Norway lacks defenses against everything from cheap, mass-produced drones to hypersonic and ballistic missiles.
It is difficult to monitor and protect the thousands of kilometers of undersea cables and gas pipelines.
The Home Guard and the Armed Forces have too few personnel to cover such a large geographic area without extensive automation.
Norway is prepared for traditional warfare involving aircraft, ships, and submarines, not large numbers of drones and cheap autonomous sabotage.
Power plants, ports, air bases, and other critical infrastructure can be attacked without Russia needing to invade with soldiers.
Norway’s military buildup is taking time, and many capabilities will not be in place until after 2029.
The lieutenant colonel believes there are many positive developments underway in Norway’s military buildup, but that it is proceeding far too slowly.
“It has been decided that a defense against ballistic missiles will be established at some point in the future. It does not seem as though the political decision-makers have understood the urgency of the threat we face,” he says.
War Is Likely
Smidt has worked for 38 years in operational and administrative roles in the Armed Forces, as well as in the Ministry of Defense. The lieutenant colonel considers it likely that Russia will attack one or more NATO countries—and that this will result in Norway also being attacked.
“The danger is very real. Russia has, after all, a stated goal of reestablishing its sphere of influence, as it had during the Soviet era. So their goal is both to secure significantly larger parts of Ukraine and also the Baltic states. That is what they have said, decided, and set in motion,” says Smidt.
In the report The Battle of Norway, the Sahaidachnyi Security Center identifies the next three years as a window of opportunity for Putin. Smidt says that the intelligence agencies of several countries describe the same critical time window.
“The intelligence agencies of many European countries—and now the CIA as well—have acknowledged that it is highly likely an attack will occur at some point between this fall and 2029,” says Smidt.
Among other things, he has written research reports for NUPI and Corisk on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
– How likely do you think it is that the Putin regime will attack a NATO country?
– It is more likely that they will do so than that they will not, says Smidt.
Active Attacks
Smidt says the attacks that have been assessed by intelligence agencies range from cyberattacks to conventional attacks aimed at seizing and holding territory. He points out that Russia is already in motion.
SHOT DOWN: The photo shows the Russian-made Geran 2 drone during a parade in Moscow in 2025. According to Reuters, a drone of this type was shot down over Lithuania on September 15. Photo: Pavel Bednyakov, AP, NTB
“European countries have been attacked hundreds of times since 2022 by Russia, or agents paid by Russia, through cyberattacks and various forms of sabotage. In other words, Russia has crossed the line into actively attacking European countries,” he says, continuing.
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“What we’re talking about here, in other words, is the likelihood of an escalation of the ongoing attacks on a larger scale, or with more damaging consequences. This includes a possible major conventional attack against one or more of the Baltic states,” says Smidt.
– Think scale and volume
The Battle of Norway points out that Norway is a large country with a small population. The recommendation in the analysis from the Ukrainian think tank is to focus on automation and AI-driven defense systems where many drones can be controlled by a few operators.
– Don’t wait for perfection; go big. It’s important to understand that war has now become a mass war where things are produced in large quantities and at low cost,” says Istomina, nodding toward Ukraine’s drone initiative, which has helped halt the Russian advance.
TESTING: Polina Istomina of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center says that the most important thing Norway can do is to get started with production: “Don’t be so afraid to try and make a few mistakes. The most important thing is to get started.” Photo: Øystein Windstad, Forsvarets forum
“We have several years of experience resisting Russian occupation. Individuals, society, and our industry possess knowledge that we’re happy to share and contribute,” she says.
Advises a Change of Course
Smidt says that lessons and knowledge from Ukraine must be used to quickly put in place defenses against drones and missiles.
“The biggest gap we have—and one that urgently needs to be addressed—is establishing a missile defense system. This will enable us to mitigate the effects of Russian ballistic missiles, particularly high-velocity missiles,” says the retired lieutenant colonel.
PATRIOT: The photo shows a German Patriot system at an airport. Patriot systems have been effective in intercepting Russian ballistic missiles in Ukraine. Photo: Axel Heimken, AP, NTB
Smidt says that systems are already in place to protect petroleum production, but that additional security measures must be put in place quickly.
“All of our major onshore facilities must be protected from both the air and the ground. We must also protect undersea infrastructure. The 33 percent of the EU’s and the UK’s energy supply cannot be replaced quickly; it will take several years,” says Smidt.
Calls for a paradigm shift
One of the recommendations in The Battle of Norway is that the Home Guard be equipped with drones and drone defense systems to create a nationwide drone shield. Lieutenant Colonel Smidt agrees with this analysis as well.
“The only way to secure sufficient drone defense and drone capacity for the entire country is through the Home Guard. However, this requires a massive expansion of training and education. It will require a complete paradigm shift,” says the researcher.
PROJECT: The photo shows a soldier in the Home Guard in Moss who is participating in a drone test project. Photo: Kaisa Flaten Brekke, Norwegian Armed Forces
The report states that Norway currently has one brigade that is scheduled to be fully equipped by 2030 and two new ones that are to be ready by 2036. The think tank notes that Norway would be dependent on assistance from Finland, Sweden, and other NATO countries should Russia launch a ground invasion of Norway. The Norwegian brigades are planned to have approximately 4,500 personnel.
Recommends a Threefold Increase
Smidt says that if a ground invasion were to occur, the Norwegian brigades would last a maximum of fourteen days as they are currently equipped.
“If we are to be able to fight for more than two weeks with three brigades, we must multiply both personnel and equipment by two to three times what we have today,” he says, continuing:
“It’s simple math. If a brigade is to fight, you must expect between 100 and 150 personnel losses per day. Eighty percent of the losses occur in infantry and armored units. If you lose 100 per day, you can, at best, fight for two weeks before these units are completely wiped out.” “We’d need to triple our numbers to have endurance beyond two weeks,” says Lieutenant Colonel Smidt.
The significance of the note;
